Through the curtains of rain and the winter floods, an old friend looms into view.

The RBS Six Nations Championship is back and we’ll all feel better for it. Whether it’s raining in Rome, dreary in Dublin or pissing down in Paris, we’ll make the faithful, familiar trek to the temples of the game in the northern hemisphere. And with new coaches in charge of Wales, France and Italy, and a new four-year cycle before another World Cup, there is justified optimism in the air.

In Ireland’s case, it will be to welcome for the first time, Italy, Wales and Scotland to the magnificent Croke Park. The atmosphere there when England turned up last winter was one of the most memorable in the history of the tournament. Even Lansdowne Road on one of those raw, cold winter afternoons would have been pushed to match it.

Try and explain just what it is that makes the Six Nations so fantastic a tournament if you consider only the rugby itself, and you could struggle. Quite frankly, sometimes it leaves a huge amount to be desired. The pressure cooker atmosphere can make players freeze on the big occasion, so the rugby suffers accordingly.

But when did any of that spoil the actual occasion? If there’s a livelier, more exciting tournament in world rugby I’ve yet to see it. New Welsh coach Warren Gatland called it last week “the premier tournament in world rugby, outside the World Cup”.

The Six Nations is the envy of every southern hemisphere-playing nation. From Cape Town to Christchurch, Durban and Dunedin to Sydney, they will be showing the matches, mostly live. Rugby fans from all around the world are captivated by it.

So who will win this year’s tournament? Well, as my forecasting powers are about as good as my milkman’s - and probably a great deal worse - I’m working on a counter theory this year.

Ireland, forever failing Ireland, have their toughest programme this time with matches away to France and England. The English should still be smarting from the hammering and humiliation they suffered from Brian O’Driscoll’s men at Croke Park last February. And the French have a huge incentive after making such a poor attempt to win their own World Cup.

So Ireland have no chance of winning that elusive Grand Slam, the title they have now waited 60 years for? I’m not so sure. Expectations and the form book are frequently made to look stupid in this tournament so who is to say Ireland can’t win at Twickenham and in Paris? Put it like this, are England and France such superb sides that no-one has a hope against them? I don’t believe so, not yet anyway.

Everything is far from rosy in the English garden and as for the French - well, you never know what to expect from them. Both countries are in the process of rebuilding.

From Italy, I fear we know exactly what to expect: another season of struggles even under their new coach, former Springboks and Stade Francais coach Nick Mallett.

However, I have a sneaking feeling that one of the Celtic countries could come through and land the title this year. Wales, sure to be better organised and more confident under their new Kiwi coach Gatland, could be the surprise package if their forwards can get enough decent ball for the backs. Maybe that’s a big if, but the Welsh will have players behind the scrum able to create chances, something several of the countries might find tough. And bet on Wasps’ defensive coach Shaun Edwards greatly tightening up Wales’ defence.

Then there’s Scotland. They had a decent World Cup although their win over Italy to reach the quarter-finals was one of the worst, most boring games I’ve ever seen. But the Scots will, as usual, be feisty and ferociously committed. Under shrewd coach Frank Hadden, they’ll also be very well organised and defensively difficult to break down.

Remember, too, both France and England have to go to Murrayfield, the ground where they’ve often come a cropper in the past.

And Ireland? Well, Bran O’Driscoll and Gordon D’Arcy are going to need to re-discover the form of which they’re capable, if they are to have hopes of glory. But maybe, just maybe this could be the tournament to inspire them.

So who knows? Maybe there will be no Grand Slam again this year but Ireland, Wales or Scotland might go close to the title.
All of which probably means the Grand Slam for England or France. It could be that open a field this year. Just don’t put your money on it!